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Azuaga vs La Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Azuaga
Azuaga
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
La Estrella
La Estrella
1/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 15Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Azuaga64%
×Draw21%
La Estrella15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuaga
1.94
La Estrella
0.81

Azuaga creates 140% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Azuaga
1.61
La Estrella
0.80

allows per match

Azuaga
0.83
La Estrella
2.27

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par
La Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

La Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw
85%
Azuaga or La Estrella
79%
Draw or La Estrella
36%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+
39%
La Estrella wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals
86%
Azuaga 2+ goals
58%
Azuaga 3+ goals
30%
La Estrella 1+ goals
56%
La Estrella 2+ goals
19%
La Estrella 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)
81%
La Estrella (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

La Estrella away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + La Estrella defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.94

La Estrella attack 0.80 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Azuaga scores more
64%
level
21%
La Estrella scores more
15%

Azuaga at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azuaga vs La Estrella

Azuaga beat La Estrella 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio CD Azuaga in Azuaga.