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Azuaga vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Azuaga
Azuaga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 25Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Azuaga50%
×Draw27%
Extremadura UD II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuaga
1.43
Extremadura UD II
0.88

Azuaga creates 63% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 42 away

creates per match

Azuaga
1.61
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

Azuaga
0.83
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw
77%
Azuaga or Extremadura UD II
73%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
50%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+
25%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals
76%
Azuaga 2+ goals
42%
Azuaga 3+ goals
17%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
59%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
22%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)
68%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Azuaga scores more
50%
level
27%
Extremadura UD II scores more
23%

Azuaga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Azuaga 0–1 Extremadura UD II

Extremadura UD II beat Azuaga 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio CD Azuaga in Azuaga.