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Azuaga vs Extremadura 1924 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Azuaga
Azuaga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Extremadura 1924
Extremadura 1924
4/18/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 31Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Azuaga37%
×Draw30%
Extremadura 192433%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuaga
1.10
Extremadura 1924
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Azuaga
1.61
Extremadura 1924
1.24

allows per match

Azuaga
0.83
Extremadura 1924
0.59

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par
Extremadura 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

Extremadura 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw
67%
Azuaga or Extremadura 1924
70%
Draw or Extremadura 1924
63%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+
15%
Extremadura 1924 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals
67%
Azuaga 2+ goals
30%
Azuaga 3+ goals
10%
Extremadura 1924 1+ goals
64%
Extremadura 1924 2+ goals
28%
Extremadura 1924 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)
53%
Extremadura 1924 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

Extremadura 1924 away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + Extremadura 1924 defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.10

Extremadura 1924 attack 1.24 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Azuaga scores more
37%
level
30%
Extremadura 1924 scores more
33%

Azuaga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Azuaga 0–0 Extremadura 1924

Azuaga and Extremadura 1924 drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio CD Azuaga in Azuaga.