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Azuaga vs CD Coria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Azuaga
Azuaga
CANC
00:00
CD Coria
CD Coria
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 30Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Azuaga35%
×Draw29%
CD Coria36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuaga
1.08
CD Coria
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 45 away

creates per match

Azuaga
1.61
CD Coria
1.38

allows per match

Azuaga
0.83
CD Coria
0.56

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par
CD Coria+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

CD Coria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw
64%
Azuaga or CD Coria
71%
Draw or CD Coria
65%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+
14%
CD Coria wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals
66%
Azuaga 2+ goals
29%
Azuaga 3+ goals
10%
CD Coria 1+ goals
67%
CD Coria 2+ goals
30%
CD Coria 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)
49%
CD Coria (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

CD Coria away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + CD Coria defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.08

CD Coria attack 1.38 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Azuaga scores more
35%
level
29%
CD Coria scores more
36%

CD Coria at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azuaga face CD Coria (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 returns with Azuaga hosting CD Coria. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Azuaga host CD Coria at Estadio CD Azuaga.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.