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Azuaga vs Castuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Azuaga
Azuaga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Castuera
Castuera
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 25Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Azuaga55%
×Draw25%
Castuera20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuaga
1.60
Castuera
0.85

Azuaga creates 88% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 34 away

creates per match

Azuaga
1.61
Castuera
0.88

allows per match

Azuaga
0.83
Castuera
1.59

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par
Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

Castuera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw
80%
Azuaga or Castuera
75%
Draw or Castuera
45%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+
29%
Castuera wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals
80%
Azuaga 2+ goals
47%
Azuaga 3+ goals
22%
Castuera 1+ goals
57%
Castuera 2+ goals
21%
Castuera 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)
73%
Castuera (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Castuera attack 0.88 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Azuaga scores more
55%
level
25%
Castuera scores more
20%

Azuaga at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Azuaga 2–1 Castuera

Azuaga beat Castuera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CD Azuaga in Azuaga.