Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Azuaga vs Badajoz II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Azuaga
Azuaga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Badajoz II
Badajoz II
1/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 17Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Azuaga51%
×Draw28%
Badajoz II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuaga
1.37
Badajoz II
0.78

Azuaga creates 76% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Azuaga
1.61
Badajoz II
0.73

allows per match

Azuaga
0.83
Badajoz II
1.13

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par
Badajoz II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

Badajoz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw
79%
Azuaga or Badajoz II
72%
Draw or Badajoz II
49%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+
25%
Badajoz II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals
75%
Azuaga 2+ goals
40%
Azuaga 3+ goals
16%
Badajoz II 1+ goals
54%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
18%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)
70%
Badajoz II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

Badajoz II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + Badajoz II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.37

Badajoz II attack 0.73 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Azuaga scores more
51%
level
28%
Badajoz II scores more
21%

Azuaga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azuaga vs Badajoz II

Azuaga beat Badajoz II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio CD Azuaga in Azuaga.