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Azkoyen vs Pamplona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Azkoyen
Azkoyen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pamplona
Pamplona
4/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 30Estadio Las Luchas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Azkoyen34%
×Draw29%
Pamplona38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azkoyen
1.08
Pamplona
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

creates per match

Azkoyen
0.97
Pamplona
1.15

allows per match

Azkoyen
1.17
Pamplona
1.19

finishing

Azkoyen+0.00on par
Pamplona+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azkoyen ↓

Pamplona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Azkoyen or draw
62%
Azkoyen or Pamplona
71%
Draw or Pamplona
66%

Winning margin

Azkoyen wins by 2+
13%
Pamplona wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Azkoyen 1+ goals
66%
Azkoyen 2+ goals
29%
Azkoyen 3+ goals
10%
Pamplona 1+ goals
69%
Pamplona 2+ goals
32%
Pamplona 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Azkoyen (draw refunded)
47%
Pamplona (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azkoyen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Pamplona away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azkoyen attack 0.97 + Pamplona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Pamplona attack 1.15 + Azkoyen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Azkoyen scores more
34%
level
29%
Pamplona scores more
38%

Pamplona at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pamplona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azkoyen vs Pamplona

Azkoyen beat Pamplona 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Luchas in Navarra.