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Azkoyen vs Burladés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Azkoyen
Azkoyen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burladés
Burladés
9/26/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 3Estadio Las Luchas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Azkoyen39%
×Draw29%
Burladés33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azkoyen
1.17
Burladés
1.05

Azkoyen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 90 away

creates per match

Azkoyen
0.97
Burladés
0.94

allows per match

Azkoyen
1.17
Burladés
1.37

finishing

Azkoyen+0.00on par
Burladés+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azkoyen ↓

Burladés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Azkoyen or draw
67%
Azkoyen or Burladés
71%
Draw or Burladés
61%

Winning margin

Azkoyen wins by 2+
16%
Burladés wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Azkoyen 1+ goals
69%
Azkoyen 2+ goals
33%
Azkoyen 3+ goals
11%
Burladés 1+ goals
65%
Burladés 2+ goals
28%
Burladés 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Azkoyen (draw refunded)
54%
Burladés (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azkoyen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Burladés away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azkoyen attack 0.97 + Burladés defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Burladés attack 0.94 + Azkoyen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Azkoyen scores more
39%
level
29%
Burladés scores more
33%

Azkoyen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Azkoyen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Azkoyen 1–0 Burladés

Azkoyen beat Burladés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Luchas in Navarra.