Azkoyen 2–0 Beti Kozkor: Result & Stats

Azkoyen

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Beti Kozkor

2/5/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 19Estadio Las Luchas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Azkoyen40%

×Draw28%

Beti Kozkor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzkoyenExpected goals in this matchBeti Kozkor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.08

Azkoyen

1.26

Beti Kozkor

1.08

Azkoyen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 93 away

0.97

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Azkoyen

0.97

Beti Kozkor

1.00

allows per match

Azkoyen

1.17

Beti Kozkor

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azkoyen+0.00on par

Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azkoyen ↓

Beti Kozkor →

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Azkoyen or draw

68%

Azkoyen or Beti Kozkor

72%

Draw or Beti Kozkor

60%

Winning margin

Azkoyen wins by 2+

18%

Beti Kozkor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Azkoyen 1+ goals

72%

Azkoyen 2+ goals

36%

Azkoyen 3+ goals

13%

Beti Kozkor 1+ goals

66%

Beti Kozkor 2+ goals

29%

Beti Kozkor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Azkoyen (draw refunded)

56%

Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Azkoyen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Beti Kozkor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Azkoyen attack 0.97 + Beti Kozkor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.26

Beti Kozkor attack 1.00 + Azkoyen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Azkoyen scores more

40%

level

28%

Beti Kozkor scores more

32%

Azkoyen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Azkoyen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff