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Azkoyen vs Avance Ezcabarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Azkoyen
Azkoyen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
12/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 14Estadio Las Luchas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Azkoyen40%
×Draw28%
Avance Ezcabarte32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azkoyen
1.23
Avance Ezcabarte
1.07

Azkoyen creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 64 away

creates per match

Azkoyen
0.97
Avance Ezcabarte
0.97

allows per match

Azkoyen
1.17
Avance Ezcabarte
1.50

finishing

Azkoyen+0.00on par
Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azkoyen ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Azkoyen or draw
68%
Azkoyen or Avance Ezcabarte
72%
Draw or Avance Ezcabarte
60%

Winning margin

Azkoyen wins by 2+
17%
Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Azkoyen 1+ goals
71%
Azkoyen 2+ goals
35%
Azkoyen 3+ goals
13%
Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
66%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
29%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Azkoyen (draw refunded)
55%
Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azkoyen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azkoyen attack 0.97 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Azkoyen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Azkoyen scores more
40%
level
28%
Avance Ezcabarte scores more
32%

Azkoyen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Azkoyen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Azkoyen 1–1 Avance Ezcabarte

Azkoyen and Avance Ezcabarte drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Luchas in Navarra.