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Azkoyen vs Alesves — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Azkoyen
Azkoyen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alesves
Alesves
2/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 20Estadio Las Luchas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Azkoyen48%
×Draw26%
Alesves25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azkoyen
1.46
Alesves
0.97

Azkoyen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

creates per match

Azkoyen
0.97
Alesves
0.78

allows per match

Azkoyen
1.17
Alesves
1.94

finishing

Azkoyen+0.00on par
Alesves+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azkoyen ↓

Alesves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Azkoyen or draw
75%
Azkoyen or Alesves
74%
Draw or Alesves
52%

Winning margin

Azkoyen wins by 2+
24%
Alesves wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Azkoyen 1+ goals
77%
Azkoyen 2+ goals
43%
Azkoyen 3+ goals
18%
Alesves 1+ goals
62%
Alesves 2+ goals
25%
Alesves 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Azkoyen (draw refunded)
66%
Alesves (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azkoyen at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Alesves away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azkoyen attack 0.97 + Alesves defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.46

Alesves attack 0.78 + Azkoyen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Azkoyen scores more
48%
level
26%
Alesves scores more
25%

Azkoyen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Azkoyen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Azkoyen 0–1 Alesves

Alesves beat Azkoyen 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Las Luchas in Navarra.