Azkals 1–2 Dynamic Herb Cebu: Result & Stats | PFL

Azkals

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamic Herb Cebu

3/11/2023

PFL · Round 6Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Azkals28%

×Draw23%

Dynamic Herb Cebu49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzkalsExpected goals in this matchDynamic Herb Cebu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.81

Azkals

1.31

Dynamic Herb Cebu

1.81

Dynamic Herb Cebu creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 35 away

1.50

creates per match

2.43

1.20

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Azkals

1.50

Dynamic Herb Cebu

2.43

allows per match

Azkals

1.20

Dynamic Herb Cebu

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azkals+0.00on par

Dynamic Herb Cebu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azkals ↓

Dynamic Herb Cebu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Azkals or draw

51%

Azkals or Dynamic Herb Cebu

77%

Draw or Dynamic Herb Cebu

72%

Winning margin

Azkals wins by 2+

12%

Dynamic Herb Cebu wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Azkals 1+ goals

73%

Azkals 2+ goals

38%

Azkals 3+ goals

14%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 1+ goals

84%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 2+ goals

54%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Azkals (draw refunded)

36%

Dynamic Herb Cebu (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azkals at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Dynamic Herb Cebu away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azkals attack 1.50 + Dynamic Herb Cebu defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dynamic Herb Cebu attack 2.43 + Azkals defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Azkals scores more

28%

level

23%

Dynamic Herb Cebu scores more

49%

Dynamic Herb Cebu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dynamic Herb Cebu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff