Azerbaijan 0–2 Wales: Result & Stats

Azerbaijan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Wales

H. Wilson 34'

K. Moore 10'

11/16/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Bakcell Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Azerbaijan18%

×Draw23%

Wales59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzerbaijanExpected goals in this matchWales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.80

Azerbaijan

0.88

Wales

1.80

Wales creates 105% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.75

creates per match

0.86

2.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Azerbaijan

0.75

Wales

0.86

allows per match

Azerbaijan

2.75

Wales

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan ↓

Wales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Azerbaijan or draw

41%

Azerbaijan or Wales

77%

Draw or Wales

82%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan wins by 2+

6%

Wales wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Azerbaijan 1+ goals

59%

Azerbaijan 2+ goals

22%

Azerbaijan 3+ goals

6%

Wales 1+ goals

83%

Wales 2+ goals

54%

Wales 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)

23%

Wales (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Wales away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan attack 0.75 + Wales defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Wales attack 0.86 + Azerbaijan defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Azerbaijan scores more

18%

level

23%

Wales scores more

59%

Wales at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

H. Wilson

Wales · M

9.0

Match Events

10'

14'

34'

40'

46'

T. Xəlilzadə← A. Krivotsyuk

60'

A. Ramsey← G. Bale

64'

A. Ramazanov← A. Abdullayev

68'

Ramil Sheydaev

81'

Joe Morrell

82'

Cavid Hüseynov← D. Nazarov

82'

87'

89'

89'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AzerbaijanWales

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots20

11Corners5

8Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots20

2On Target9

2Off Target7

6Blocked4

5Inside Box13

5Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

449Total Passes511

373Accurate Passes445

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0