Azerbaijan 1–2 Luxembourg: Result & Stats

Azerbaijan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Luxembourg

Ramil Sheydaev 43'

Gerson Rodrigues 72' (pen)

Anton Krivotsyuk 48' (OG)

9/5/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 1Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Azerbaijan30%

×Draw30%

Luxembourg40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzerbaijanExpected goals in this matchLuxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.15

Azerbaijan

0.96

Luxembourg

1.15

Luxembourg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

0.91

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Azerbaijan

1.00

Luxembourg

1.38

allows per match

Azerbaijan

0.91

Luxembourg

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan ↓

Luxembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Azerbaijan or draw

60%

Azerbaijan or Luxembourg

70%

Draw or Luxembourg

70%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan wins by 2+

11%

Luxembourg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Azerbaijan 1+ goals

62%

Azerbaijan 2+ goals

25%

Azerbaijan 3+ goals

7%

Luxembourg 1+ goals

68%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

32%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)

43%

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan attack 1.00 + Luxembourg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Luxembourg attack 1.38 + Azerbaijan defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Azerbaijan scores more

30%

level

30%

Luxembourg scores more

40%

Luxembourg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Vincent Thill

Luxembourg · M

7.6

Match Events

25'

Mahir Emreli

43'

Ramil Sheydaev↳ Namiq Alasgarov

48'

Anton KrivotsyukOwn goal

52'

Stefano Bensi← Maurice Deville

58'

Renat Dadaşov← Ramil Sheydaev

58'

Danel Sinani← Olivier Thill

63'

Tamkin Khalilzadeh

67'

Adil Nagiyev← Namiq Alasgarov

71'

Adil Nagiyev

72'

Gerson RodriguesPenalty

77'

Araz Abdullayev← Tamkin Khalilzadeh

90+2'

Qara Qarayev

90'

Aldin Skenderović← Vincent Thill

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AzerbaijanLuxembourg

Overview

34%Possession66%

2Total Shots19

0Corners9

19Fouls13

Shots

2Total Shots19

2On Target7

0Off Target5

0Blocked7

2Inside Box9

0Outside Box10

Passing

34%Possession66%

312Total Passes582

227Accurate Passes494

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls13

3Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0