Azerbaijan 0–1 Latvia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Azerbaijan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Latvia

V. Gutkovskis 85'

3/29/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Azerbaijan39%

×Draw28%

Latvia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzerbaijanExpected goals in this matchLatvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.10

Azerbaijan

1.22

Latvia

1.10

Azerbaijan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

0.93

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Azerbaijan

0.93

Latvia

1.00

allows per match

Azerbaijan

1.20

Latvia

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Latvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan ↓

Latvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Azerbaijan or draw

67%

Azerbaijan or Latvia

72%

Draw or Latvia

61%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan wins by 2+

17%

Latvia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Azerbaijan 1+ goals

70%

Azerbaijan 2+ goals

34%

Azerbaijan 3+ goals

12%

Latvia 1+ goals

67%

Latvia 2+ goals

30%

Latvia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)

54%

Latvia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Latvia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan attack 0.93 + Latvia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Latvia attack 1.00 + Azerbaijan defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Azerbaijan scores more

39%

level

28%

Latvia scores more

33%

Azerbaijan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Azerbaijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

29'

30'

40'

46'

R. Matrevics← P. Šteinbors

52'

Eddy Silvestre

54'

R. Almeyda← D. Nazarov

63'

A. Jaunzems← A. Cigaņiks

72'

V. Kamešs← R. Varslavāns

73'

C. Diniyev← E. Mahmudov

73'

F. Ozobić← E. İsrafilov

78'

T. Xəlilzadə← T. Bayramov

79'

N. Ələsgərov← M. Medvedev

79'

A. Hüseynov← R. Dadaşov

85'

V. Gutkovskis

88'

I. Tarasovs← A. Saveljevs

90+3'

Joshgun Diniyev

90'

Kaspars Dubra

90'

Kaspars Dubra

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AzerbaijanLatvia

Overview

56%Possession44%

5Total Shots6

2Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots6

3On Target5

2Off Target1

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

4Offsides1