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Azerbaijan vs Bulgaria — Friendlies 2026

Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
3/25/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Azerbaijan40%
×Draw29%
Bulgaria31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azerbaijan
1.17
Bulgaria
1.00

Azerbaijan creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Azerbaijan
0.93
Bulgaria
0.80

allows per match

Azerbaijan
1.20
Bulgaria
1.40

finishing

Azerbaijan+0.00on par
Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan ↓

Bulgaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Azerbaijan or draw
69%
Azerbaijan or Bulgaria
71%
Draw or Bulgaria
60%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan wins by 2+
17%
Bulgaria wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Azerbaijan 1+ goals
69%
Azerbaijan 2+ goals
33%
Azerbaijan 3+ goals
11%
Bulgaria 1+ goals
63%
Bulgaria 2+ goals
26%
Bulgaria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)
56%
Bulgaria (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan attack 0.93 + Bulgaria defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bulgaria attack 0.80 + Azerbaijan defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Azerbaijan scores more
40%
level
29%
Bulgaria scores more
31%

Azerbaijan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Azerbaijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Azerbaijan 1–1 Bulgaria

Azerbaijan and Bulgaria drew 1-1 in Friendlies on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu in Baku.