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Azerbaijan vs Belarus — Friendlies 2026

Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Belarus
Belarus
Nikita Demchenko 78'
Pavel Zabelin 60'
3/25/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Bank Respublika Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Azerbaijan25%
×Draw29%
Belarus46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azerbaijan
0.87
Belarus
1.29

Belarus creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Azerbaijan
0.93
Belarus
1.38

allows per match

Azerbaijan
1.20
Belarus
0.81

finishing

Azerbaijan+0.00on par
Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan ↓

Belarus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Azerbaijan or draw
54%
Azerbaijan or Belarus
71%
Draw or Belarus
75%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan wins by 2+
8%
Belarus wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Azerbaijan 1+ goals
58%
Azerbaijan 2+ goals
22%
Azerbaijan 3+ goals
6%
Belarus 1+ goals
72%
Belarus 2+ goals
37%
Belarus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan (draw refunded)
35%
Belarus (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Belarus away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan attack 0.93 + Belarus defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Belarus attack 1.38 + Azerbaijan defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Azerbaijan scores more
25%
level
29%
Belarus scores more
46%

Belarus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Pavel Sedko← Valeri Gromyko
54'
Aleksei Gavrilovich
59'
Vadim Pigas← Kirill Pechenin
59'
German Barkovskiy← Trofim Melnichenko
60'
Pavel Zabelin
62'
Coşqun Diniyev← Shahin Shahniyarov
62'
Renat Dadaşov← Nariman Akhundzade
66'
Dmitriy Prishchepa← Yuriy Kovalev
66'
Valeri Bocherov← Sergei Politevich
67'
Amin Seydiyev← Mert Çelik
78'
Nikita Demchenko↳ Max Ebong
81'
Mahir Emreli
83'
Ismayil Ibrahimli← Sabuhi Abdullazada
83'
Rahman Dashdamirov← Zamiq Aliyev

Possession

50%Azerbaijan

Statistics

AzerbaijanBelarus
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Corners11
10Fouls16
Shots
3On Target6
6Off Target13
5Blocked11
Passing
50%Possession50%
Discipline
10Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Friendlies: Azerbaijan 0–2 Belarus

Belarus beat Azerbaijan 2-0 in Friendlies on March 25, 2025.

Goals: Pavel Zabelin (60'), Nikita Demchenko (78').

Azerbaijan dominated possession with 50% of the ball.

The match was played at Bank Respublika Arena in Masazir.