Azerbaijan U19 0–4 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

Azerbaijan U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Lithuania U19

J. Turcinskas 82'

R. Piazenko 74'

D. Grudzinskas 45', 29'

3/25/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League B - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Azerbaijan U1930%

×Draw26%

Lithuania U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Azerbaijan U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.47

Azerbaijan U19

1.18

Lithuania U19

1.47

Lithuania U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

0.50

creates per match

0.77

2.17

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Azerbaijan U19

0.50

Lithuania U19

0.77

allows per match

Azerbaijan U19

2.17

Lithuania U19

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azerbaijan U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Azerbaijan U19 or draw

56%

Azerbaijan U19 or Lithuania U19

74%

Draw or Lithuania U19

70%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan U19 wins by 2+

12%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Azerbaijan U19 1+ goals

69%

Azerbaijan U19 2+ goals

33%

Azerbaijan U19 3+ goals

12%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

77%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

43%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan U19 attack 0.50 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Lithuania U19 attack 0.77 + Azerbaijan U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Azerbaijan U19 scores more

30%

level

26%

Lithuania U19 scores more

44%

Lithuania U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lithuania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

D. Grudzinskas↳ O. Pukelis

37'

N. Nasibli← I. Hazizada

37'

A. Valiyev← A. Ibrahim

45'

D. Grudzinskas↳ D. Liepis

46'

A. Aliyev← N. Zeynalli

74'

R. Piazenko↳ O. Pukelis

77'

C. Mennea← R. Piazenko

77'

N. Diugevic← D. Taucas

81'

I. Hasanov← I. Babayev

81'

N. Maharramov← M. Gurbanov

82'

J. Turcinskas↳ O. Pukelis

83'

S. Grabauskas← G. Emerhi

83'

V. Bradunas← K. Gustas

Azerbaijan

Lithuania

1

Cepulis

17

A

Liepis

14

Ziedelis

2

⚽

Turcinska

4

Jonyla

11

▼

Emerhi

6

⚽2

Grudzinsk

8

▼

Gustas

13

A

Pukelis

9

⚽

▼

Piazenko

7

▼

Taucas

12

Ayyubov

13

▼

5

4

18

11

▼

Babayev

6

▼

Zeynalli

8

Jabbarli

3

▼

Gurbanov

9

▼

Ibrahim

19

Narimanov

Manager: E. Abdullayev

37'▲N. Nasibli←▼I. Hazizada

37'▲A. Valiyev←▼A. Ibrahim

46'▲A. Aliyev←▼N. Zeynalli

81'▲I. Hasanov←▼I. Babayev

81'▲N. Maharramov←▼M. Gurbanov

Azerbaijan U19 substitutes

1Hasanov2Nasibli7Hasanov14Aliyev15Maharramov16Muradov20Valiyev

Manager: R. Breu

77'▲C. Mennea←▼R. Piazenko

77'▲N. Diugevic←▼D. Taucas

83'▲S. Grabauskas←▼G. Emerhi

83'▲V. Bradunas←▼K. Gustas

Lithuania U19 substitutes

12Cekavicius3Balsys5Jermakovas10Grabauskas15Stambrauskas18Bradunas19Mennea20Diugevic21Padegimas