Azerbaijan U19 0–2 Iceland U19: Result & Stats

Azerbaijan U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Iceland U19

T. Jóhannessen 89', 25'

11/13/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Baza Zimbru 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Azerbaijan U1919%

×Draw23%

Iceland U1958%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Azerbaijan U19Expected goals in this matchIceland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.82

Azerbaijan U19

0.95

Iceland U19

1.82

Iceland U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

0.50

creates per match

1.47

2.17

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Azerbaijan U19

0.50

Iceland U19

1.47

allows per match

Azerbaijan U19

2.17

Iceland U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azerbaijan U19+0.00on par

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Azerbaijan U19 or draw

42%

Azerbaijan U19 or Iceland U19

77%

Draw or Iceland U19

81%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan U19 wins by 2+

7%

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Azerbaijan U19 1+ goals

61%

Azerbaijan U19 2+ goals

25%

Azerbaijan U19 3+ goals

7%

Iceland U19 1+ goals

84%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

54%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan U19 attack 0.50 + Iceland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Iceland U19 attack 1.47 + Azerbaijan U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Azerbaijan U19 scores more

19%

level

23%

Iceland U19 scores more

58%

Iceland U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

T. Jóhannessen

44'

M. Mammadov

46'

H. Hüseynov← S. Nəbiyev

54'

K. Kjartansson

63'

B. Baldursson

63'

Ş. İbrahimov← N. Orucəli

64'

G. G. Asgeir

66'

K. Feyziyev

72'

N. Guliyev

74'

D. Jónsson← K. Kjartansson

74'

S. Þórðarson← G. Guðmundsson

75'

H. Jabrayilzade

81'

Q. Ramazanov← E. Dünyamalıyev

81'

S. Muradlı← E. Binyətzadə

81'

Ə. Ələkbərli← M. Məmmədov

89'

T. Jóhannessen

90+3'

G. Ramazanov

90+2'

B. Hauksson← T. Jóhannessen

90+2'

M. Ellertsson← D. Guðjohnsen

90+2'

V. Vidarsson← D. Jóhannesson

Azerbaijan

Iceland

12

4

2

5

3

11

▼

Guðmundss

10

⚽2

▼

Jóhanness

6

Baldursso

8

▼

Kjartanss

17

▼

Jóhanness

9

▼

1

21

14

2

▼

Nəbiyev

7

▼

Məmmədov

23

Əhmədzadə

15

▼

Dünyamalı

20

Nazarov

19

▼

Binyətzad

5

Məmmədli

9

▼

Orucəli

Manager: E. Abdullayev

46'▲H. Hüseynov←▼S. Nəbiyev

63'▲Ş. İbrahimov←▼N. Orucəli

81'▲Q. Ramazanov←▼E. Dünyamalıyev

81'▲S. Muradlı←▼E. Binyətzadə

81'▲Ə. Ələkbərli←▼M. Məmmədov

Azerbaijan U19 substitutes

4Hüseynov11İbrahimov17Ramazanov18Muradlı10Ələkbərli8Cəfərli6Orucov3Əliyev22Həşimov

Manager: Þ. Siggeirsson

74'▲D. Jónsson←▼K. Kjartansson

74'▲S. Þórðarson←▼G. Guðmundsson

90+2'▲B. Hauksson←▼T. Jóhannessen

90+2'▲M. Ellertsson←▼D. Guðjohnsen

90+2'▲V. Vidarsson←▼D. Jóhannesson

Iceland U19 substitutes

18Jónsson7Þórðarson13Hauksson15Ellertsson16Vidarsson19Burknason1Þórhallsson14Sigurðsson20Harðarson