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Azerbaijan U19 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Azerbaijan U19
Azerbaijan U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
11/15/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Azerbaijan U1924%
×Draw24%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azerbaijan U19
1.10
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.73

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Azerbaijan U19
0.50
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.29

allows per match

Azerbaijan U19
2.17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
1.71

finishing

Azerbaijan U19+0.00on par
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan U19 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Azerbaijan U19 or draw
48%
Azerbaijan U19 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
76%
Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19
76%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan U19 wins by 2+
9%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Azerbaijan U19 1+ goals
67%
Azerbaijan U19 2+ goals
30%
Azerbaijan U19 3+ goals
10%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals
82%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals
52%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan U19 (draw refunded)
32%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan U19 attack 0.50 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.29 + Azerbaijan U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Azerbaijan U19 scores more
24%
level
24%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more
52%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Azerbaijan U19 0–0 Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

Azerbaijan U19 and Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière in Esch-sur-Alzette.