Azerbaijan U19 1–5 Belgium U19: Result & Stats

Azerbaijan U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Belgium U19

M. Ağayev 27'

S. Damadayev 85' (OG)

L. Oyen 73'

M. Stroeykens 70'

T. Rommens 36'

J. Bakayoko 34'

11/10/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stade am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Azerbaijan U1915%

×Draw22%

Belgium U1963%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Azerbaijan U19Expected goals in this matchBelgium U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.90

Azerbaijan U19

0.79

Belgium U19

1.90

Belgium U19 creates 141% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

0.50

creates per match

1.64

2.17

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Azerbaijan U19

0.50

Belgium U19

1.64

allows per match

Azerbaijan U19

2.17

Belgium U19

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azerbaijan U19+0.00on par

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azerbaijan U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Azerbaijan U19 or draw

37%

Azerbaijan U19 or Belgium U19

78%

Draw or Belgium U19

85%

Winning margin

Azerbaijan U19 wins by 2+

4%

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Azerbaijan U19 1+ goals

55%

Azerbaijan U19 2+ goals

19%

Azerbaijan U19 3+ goals

5%

Belgium U19 1+ goals

85%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

56%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Azerbaijan U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azerbaijan U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azerbaijan U19 attack 0.50 + Belgium U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Belgium U19 attack 1.64 + Azerbaijan U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Azerbaijan U19 scores more

15%

level

22%

Belgium U19 scores more

63%

Belgium U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

34'

36'

61'

61'

61'

L. Audoor← N. Mbamba-Muanda

65'

S. Damadayev← M. Əhmədov

70'

M. Stroeykens

73'

L. Oyen

74'

A. Salyanski← M. Canıyev

74'

C. Şahbazlı← M. Ağayev

74'

C. Sandra← L. Oyen

77'

Y. Oral← K. Aliyev

81'

A. Descotte← J. Bakayoko

85'

S. DamadayevOwn goal

Azerbaijan

Belgium

1

Chambaere

5

⚽

▼

Rommens

2

Ngoy

3

Debast

18

▼

Mbamba-Mu

10

⚽

▼

Oyen

16

Wilde

9

⚽

Stroeyken

6

▼

Lavia

17

Mondele

7

⚽

▼

Bakayoko

12

Ramazanov

5

▼

13

20

14

8

10

15

⚽

▼

Ağayev

23

▼

Aliyev

9

Baxşalı

11

▼

Canıyev

Manager: E. Abdullayev

65'▲S. Damadayev←▼M. Əhmədov

74'▲A. Salyanski←▼M. Canıyev

74'▲C. Şahbazlı←▼M. Ağayev

77'▲Y. Oral←▼K. Aliyev

Azerbaijan U19 substitutes

21Damadayev19Salyanski18Şahbazlı6Oral2Orucov1Tağızadə7Əsədov17Kazımov16Qənbərov

Manager: W. Sonck

61'▲A. Calut←▼T. Rommens

61'▲A. Engels←▼R. Lavia

61'▲L. Audoor←▼N. Mbamba-Muanda

74'▲C. Sandra←▼L. Oyen

81'▲A. Descotte←▼J. Bakayoko

Belgium U19 substitutes

20Calut21Engels11Audoor8Sandra19Descotte15Abid12Boets14Wasinski4Lagae

Match Recap: Azerbaijan U19 vs Belgium U19

Belgium U19 beat Azerbaijan U19 5-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 10, 2021.

Goals: M. Ağayev (27'), J. Bakayoko (34'), T. Rommens (36'), M. Stroeykens (70'), L. Oyen (73'), S. Damadayev (85' o.g.).

The match was played at Stade am Petz in Weidingen.

Azerbaijan U19 vs Belgium U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Azerbaijan U19 vs Belgium U19