Azam 4–0 Tanzania Prisons: Result & Stats

Azam

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tanzania Prisons

L. Mwaikenda 68'

P. Msindo 57', 45'

N. S. Hamoud 5'

3/6/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 23Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Azam68%

×Draw23%

Tanzania Prisons9%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzamExpected goals in this matchTanzania Prisons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.42

Azam

1.66

Tanzania Prisons

0.42

Azam creates 295% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

1.73

creates per match

0.66

0.18

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Azam

1.73

Tanzania Prisons

0.66

allows per match

Azam

0.18

Tanzania Prisons

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azam+0.00on par

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Tanzania Prisons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Azam or draw

91%

Azam or Tanzania Prisons

77%

Draw or Tanzania Prisons

32%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+

39%

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals

81%

Azam 2+ goals

49%

Azam 3+ goals

23%

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

34%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

7%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)

88%

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.18 · 22 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.73 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.66 + Azam defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Azam scores more

68%

level

23%

Tanzania Prisons scores more

9%

Azam at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

N. S. Hamoud↳ I. S. Nado

45'

P. Msindo

57'

P. Msindo↳ L. Mwaikenda

68'

L. Mwaikenda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff