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Azam vs Singida Black Stars — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Azam
Azam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
J. Blanco 56'
F. Salum 38'
E. Rupia 62'
11/28/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 10Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Azam56%
×Draw25%
Singida Black Stars19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azam
1.59
Singida Black Stars
0.82

Azam creates 94% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

creates per match

Azam
1.96
Singida Black Stars
1.43

allows per match

Azam
0.22
Singida Black Stars
1.22

finishing

Azam+0.00on par
Singida Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Singida Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Azam or draw
81%
Azam or Singida Black Stars
75%
Draw or Singida Black Stars
44%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+
30%
Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals
80%
Azam 2+ goals
47%
Azam 3+ goals
21%
Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
56%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
20%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)
74%
Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.22 · 27 matches

Singida Black Stars away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.96 + Singida Black Stars defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.59

Singida Black Stars attack 1.43 + Azam defence 0.22 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Azam scores more
56%
level
25%
Singida Black Stars scores more
19%

Azam at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
F. Salum↳ I. S. Nado
56'
J. Blanco↳ I. S. Nado
62'
E. Rupia↳ A. Bada

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azam 2 – 1 Singida Black Stars

Azam beat Singida Black Stars 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 28, 2024.

Goals: F. Salum (38'), J. Blanco (56'), E. Rupia (62').

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.