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Azam vs Simba — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Azam
Azam
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Simba
Simba
9/26/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 4Amaan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Azam38%
×Draw28%
Simba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azam
1.25
Simba
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Azam
1.98
Simba
1.72

allows per match

Azam
0.61
Simba
0.51

finishing

Azam+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Azam or draw
66%
Azam or Simba
72%
Draw or Simba
62%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+
17%
Simba wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals
71%
Azam 2+ goals
36%
Azam 3+ goals
13%
Simba 1+ goals
69%
Simba 2+ goals
33%
Simba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)
53%
Simba (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Simba away — creates 1.72, concedes 0.51 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.98 + Simba defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Simba attack 1.72 + Azam defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Azam scores more
38%
level
28%
Simba scores more
34%

Azam at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azam vs Simba

Simba beat Azam 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 26, 2024.

The match was played at Amaan Stadium in Zanzibar City.