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Azam vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Azam
Azam
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
C. Mkandala 90+3'
I. S. Nado 71'
K. Muguna 57'
A. H. Suleiman 55'
P. Dube 51'
A. H. Suleiman 22'
Unknown 78'
12/31/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 19Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Azam68%
×Draw21%
Mbeya City11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azam
1.84
Mbeya City
0.57

Azam creates 223% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

creates per match

Azam
1.93
Mbeya City
0.90

allows per match

Azam
0.25
Mbeya City
1.76

finishing

Azam+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Azam or draw
89%
Azam or Mbeya City
79%
Draw or Mbeya City
32%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+
41%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals
84%
Azam 2+ goals
55%
Azam 3+ goals
28%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
43%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
11%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)
86%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.25 · 28 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.93 + Mbeya City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.84

Mbeya City attack 0.90 + Azam defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Azam scores more
68%
level
21%
Mbeya City scores more
11%

Azam at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. H. Suleiman
51'
P. Dube
55'
A. H. Suleiman
57'
K. Muguna
71'
I. S. Nado
78'
90+3'
C. Mkandala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Azam 6–1 Mbeya City

Azam beat Mbeya City 6-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 31, 2022.

Goals: A. H. Suleiman (22', 55'), P. Dube (51'), K. Muguna (57'), I. S. Nado (71'), ? (78'), C. Mkandala (90+3').

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.