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Azam vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Azam
Azam
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
4/17/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 23Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Azam68%
×Draw24%
Mashujaa9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azam
1.61
Mashujaa
0.40

Azam creates 303% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

creates per match

Azam
1.93
Mashujaa
0.55

allows per match

Azam
0.25
Mashujaa
1.29

finishing

Azam+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Azam or draw
91%
Azam or Mashujaa
76%
Draw or Mashujaa
32%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+
38%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals
80%
Azam 2+ goals
48%
Azam 3+ goals
22%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
33%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
6%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)
88%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.25 · 28 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.93 + Mashujaa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mashujaa attack 0.55 + Azam defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Azam scores more
68%
level
24%
Mashujaa scores more
9%

Azam at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azam 0 – 0 Mashujaa

Azam and Mashujaa drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.