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Azam vs Kagera Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Azam
Azam
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
5/25/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Azam61%
×Draw24%
Kagera Sugar15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azam
1.65
Kagera Sugar
0.68

Azam creates 143% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 96 away

creates per match

Azam
1.98
Kagera Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Azam
0.61
Kagera Sugar
1.31

finishing

Azam+0.00on par
Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Kagera Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Azam or draw
85%
Azam or Kagera Sugar
76%
Draw or Kagera Sugar
39%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+
34%
Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals
81%
Azam 2+ goals
49%
Azam 3+ goals
23%
Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
49%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
15%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)
80%
Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.98 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + Azam defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Azam scores more
61%
level
24%
Kagera Sugar scores more
15%

Azam at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Azam 5–1 Kagera Sugar

Azam beat Kagera Sugar 5-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.