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Azam vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Azam
Azam
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
F. Salum 81'
D. Semfuko 68'
3/6/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 20Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Azam63%
×Draw26%
Coastal Union11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azam
1.50
Coastal Union
0.47

Azam creates 219% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

Azam
1.73
Coastal Union
0.76

allows per match

Azam
0.18
Coastal Union
1.28

finishing

Azam+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Azam or draw
89%
Azam or Coastal Union
74%
Draw or Coastal Union
37%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+
34%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals
78%
Azam 2+ goals
44%
Azam 3+ goals
19%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
37%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
8%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)
85%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.18 · 22 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.73 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Coastal Union attack 0.76 + Azam defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Azam scores more
63%
level
26%
Coastal Union scores more
11%

Azam at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
D. Semfuko
81'
F. Salum↳ K. Tiagori Emmanuel Junior Zunon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Azam 1–1 Coastal Union

Azam and Coastal Union drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on March 6, 2024.

Goals: D. Semfuko (68'), F. Salum (81').

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.