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AZ U19 vs Molde U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

AZ U19
AZ U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Molde U19
Molde U19
11/28/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundAFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AZ U1992%
×Draw5%
Molde U192%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ U19
4.29
Molde U19
0.66

AZ U19 creates 550% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

AZ U19
4.08
Molde U19
1.00

allows per match

AZ U19
0.31
Molde U19
4.50

finishing

AZ U19+0.00on par
Molde U19+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ U19 ↓

Molde U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

AZ U19 or draw
98%
AZ U19 or Molde U19
95%
Draw or Molde U19
8%

Winning margin

AZ U19 wins by 2+
81%
Molde U19 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

AZ U19 1+ goals
98%
AZ U19 2+ goals
92%
AZ U19 3+ goals
77%
Molde U19 1+ goals
48%
Molde U19 2+ goals
14%
Molde U19 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

AZ U19 (draw refunded)
98%
Molde U19 (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ U19 at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Molde U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ U19 attack 4.08 + Molde U19 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 4.29

Molde U19 attack 1.00 + AZ U19 defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

AZ U19 scores more
92%
level
5%
Molde U19 scores more
2%

AZ U19 at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "AZ U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AZ U19 vs Molde U19

AZ U19 beat Molde U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.