AZ U19 5–0 Hajduk Split U19: Result & Stats

AZ U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hajduk Split U19

M. Meerdink 87', 79'

E. Poku 76', 70'

J. Addai 45' (pen)

4/24/2023

UEFA Youth League · FinalStade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AZ U1974%

×Draw15%

Hajduk Split U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ U19Expected goals in this matchHajduk Split U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.74

0.96

AZ U19

2.74

Hajduk Split U19

0.96

AZ U19 creates 185% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

4.08

creates per match

1.60

0.31

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

AZ U19

4.08

Hajduk Split U19

1.60

allows per match

AZ U19

0.31

Hajduk Split U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ U19+0.00on par

Hajduk Split U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ U19 ↓

Hajduk Split U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

AZ U19 or draw

89%

AZ U19 or Hajduk Split U19

85%

Draw or Hajduk Split U19

26%

Winning margin

AZ U19 wins by 2+

53%

Hajduk Split U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

AZ U19 1+ goals

93%

AZ U19 2+ goals

75%

AZ U19 3+ goals

51%

Hajduk Split U19 1+ goals

62%

Hajduk Split U19 2+ goals

25%

Hajduk Split U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AZ U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Hajduk Split U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ U19 at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Hajduk Split U19 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ U19 attack 4.08 + Hajduk Split U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.74

Hajduk Split U19 attack 1.60 + AZ U19 defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

AZ U19 scores more

74%

level

15%

Hajduk Split U19 scores more

11%

AZ U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "AZ U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

S. Hrgovic

44'

L. Vuskovic

45'

J. AddaiPenalty

46'

M. Meerdink← R. Daal

50'

A. Kavelj

59'

N. Dolonga

63'

K. Nazor← N. Đolonga

63'

N. Skoko← M. Antunović

68'

T. Arković← M. Capan

70'

E. Poku↳ F. de Jong

76'

E. Poku↳ M. Meerdink

78'

D. Reić← R. Brajković

78'

N. Duić← J. Vrcić

79'

M. Meerdink

84'

J. van Aken← E. Mastoras

84'

T. Kerssens← J. Addai

85'

J. Gerold← E. Poku

86'

K. Nazor

87'

M. Meerdink↳ K. Smit

88'

J. Kalisvaart← K. Smit

AZ

Hajduk

33

Buljan

4

Jurić-Pet

14

Hrgović

2

▼

5

36

21

8

▼

Capan

9

▼

Antunović

11

▼

Brajković

10

▼

1

3

17

10

A

Jong

21

Kwakman

23

▼

Mastoras

8

Schouten

15

A

▼

Smit

7

⚽2

▼

Poku

12

▼

Daal

11

⚽

▼

Addai

Manager: J. Sierksma

46'▲M. Meerdink←▼R. Daal

84'▲J. van Aken←▼E. Mastoras

84'▲T. Kerssens←▼J. Addai

85'▲J. Gerold←▼E. Poku

88'▲J. Kalisvaart←▼K. Smit

AZ U19 substitutes

9Meerdink2Aken20Kerssens30Gerold18Kalisvaart29Esajas16Kuijsten

Manager: M. Budimir

63'▲K. Nazor←▼N. Đolonga

63'▲N. Skoko←▼M. Antunović

68'▲T. Arković←▼M. Capan

78'▲D. Reić←▼R. Brajković

78'▲N. Duić←▼J. Vrcić

Hajduk Split U19 substitutes

28Nazor15Skoko24Arković25Reić26Duić99Fesyuk23Begonja

UEFA Youth League: AZ U19 5–0 Hajduk Split U19

AZ U19 beat Hajduk Split U19 5-0 in UEFA Youth League on April 24, 2023.

Goals: J. Addai (45' pen), E. Poku (70', 76'), M. Meerdink (79', 87').

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Lancy.

AZ U19 vs Hajduk Split U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: AZ U19 5–0 Hajduk Split U19