AZ U19 2–2 Crvena Zvezda U19: Result & Stats

AZ U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Crvena Zvezda U19

J. Addai 28'

E. Poku 9'

A. Vukičević 83'

J. Mijatović 48'

10/25/2022

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundAFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AZ U1984%

×Draw10%

Crvena Zvezda U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ U19Expected goals in this matchCrvena Zvezda U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.42

0.84

AZ U19

3.42

Crvena Zvezda U19

0.84

AZ U19 creates 307% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

4.08

creates per match

1.38

0.31

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

AZ U19

4.08

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.38

allows per match

AZ U19

0.31

Crvena Zvezda U19

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ U19+0.00on par

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ U19 ↓

Crvena Zvezda U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

AZ U19 or draw

94%

AZ U19 or Crvena Zvezda U19

90%

Draw or Crvena Zvezda U19

16%

Winning margin

AZ U19 wins by 2+

67%

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

AZ U19 1+ goals

97%

AZ U19 2+ goals

85%

AZ U19 3+ goals

64%

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

57%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

21%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

AZ U19 (draw refunded)

94%

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ U19 at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Crvena Zvezda U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ U19 attack 4.08 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 3.42

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.38 + AZ U19 defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

AZ U19 scores more

84%

level

10%

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

6%

AZ U19 at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "AZ U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

28'

40'

48'

50'

L. Stojsavljevic

62'

I. Brajić← D. Ivić

62'

S. Radujko← L. Stojsavljević

69'

J. Mijatovic

72'

S. Miladinovic

72'

W. Goes

80'

L. Lečić← S. Leković

83'

A. Vukičević

86'

E. Mastoras← T. Kerssens

86'

L. Bošković← J. Mijatović

AZ

Crvena

1

Miladinov

5

⚽

Vukičević

4

▼

2

10

3

6

11

▼

Stojsavlj

9

⚽

▼

Mijatović

7

Miladinov

8

▼

1

2

14

17

6

3

20

▼

Kerssens

8

Schouten

7

⚽

Poku

12

Daal

11

⚽

Addai

Manager: J. Sierksma

86'▲E. Mastoras←▼T. Kerssens

AZ U19 substitutes

23Mastoras15Smit18Kalisvaart21Kwakman29Esajas30Gerold22Zeggen

Manager: Z. Rendulić

62'▲I. Brajić←▼D. Ivić

62'▲S. Radujko←▼L. Stojsavljević

80'▲L. Lečić←▼S. Leković

86'▲L. Bošković←▼J. Mijatović

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

17Brajić18Radujko15Lečić16Bošković12Marinković14Đurić13Graonja

UEFA Youth League: AZ U19 2–2 Crvena Zvezda U19

AZ U19 and Crvena Zvezda U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA Youth League on October 25, 2022.

Goals: E. Poku (9'), J. Addai (28'), J. Mijatović (48'), A. Vukičević (83').

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.

AZ U19 vs Crvena Zvezda U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: AZ U19 2–2 Crvena Zvezda U19