Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AZ U19 vs Atlético Madrid U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

AZ U19
AZ U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Madrid U19
Atlético Madrid U19
2/7/2024UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Play-offsAFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AZ U1969%
×Draw17%
Atlético Madrid U1914%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ U19
2.66
Atlético Madrid U19
1.14

AZ U19 creates 133% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 25 away

creates per match

AZ U19
4.08
Atlético Madrid U19
1.96

allows per match

AZ U19
0.31
Atlético Madrid U19
1.24

finishing

AZ U19+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ U19 ↓

Atlético Madrid U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

AZ U19 or draw
86%
AZ U19 or Atlético Madrid U19
83%
Draw or Atlético Madrid U19
31%

Winning margin

AZ U19 wins by 2+
48%
Atlético Madrid U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AZ U19 1+ goals
93%
AZ U19 2+ goals
74%
AZ U19 3+ goals
49%
Atlético Madrid U19 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Madrid U19 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Madrid U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AZ U19 (draw refunded)
83%
Atlético Madrid U19 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ U19 at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Atlético Madrid U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ U19 attack 4.08 + Atlético Madrid U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.66

Atlético Madrid U19 attack 1.96 + AZ U19 defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

AZ U19 scores more
69%
level
17%
Atlético Madrid U19 scores more
14%

AZ U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "AZ U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AZ U19 vs Atlético Madrid U19

AZ U19 beat Atlético Madrid U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on February 7, 2024.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.