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AZ Alkmaar vs Shelbourne — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
I. Jensen 86'
M. de Wit 70'
11/27/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AZ Alkmaar66%
×Draw23%
Shelbourne11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Shelbourne
0.55

AZ Alkmaar creates 211% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
2.24
Shelbourne
0.50

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
0.60
Shelbourne
1.17

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par
Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 65Yes: 3565%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
89%
AZ Alkmaar or Shelbourne
77%
Draw or Shelbourne
34%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
38%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
82%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
51%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
24%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
42%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
11%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
85%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.24 + Shelbourne defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shelbourne attack 0.50 + AZ Alkmaar defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
66%
level
23%
Shelbourne scores more
11%

AZ Alkmaar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
W. SpeelShelbourneShelbourne · G
8.7

Match Events

15'
Jack Henry-Francis
25'
Harry Wood
40'
Dave Kwakman
46'
K. Smit← D. Kwakman
61'
J. Martin← H. Wood
61'
E. Caffrey← J. Lunney
65'
M. Chavez Garcia← E. Dijkstra
65'
I. Jensen← W. Bouziane
66'
Paddy Barrett
70'
M. de Wit↳ P. Koopmeiners
76'
John Martin
77'
M. Sin← Weslley Patati
77'
S. Gannon← M. Mbeng
77'
E. Chapman← J. Henry-Francis
84'
S. Boyd← M. Odubeko
86'
I. Jensen
90+3'
Isak Steiner Jensen
90+1'
B. van Duijl← M. de Wit

Possession

AZ: 73Shelbourne: 2773%AZ

Shots

AZ: 22Shelbourne: 522AZ

Pass accuracy

AZ: 89Shelbourne: 6657%AZ

Statistics

AZShelbourne
Overview
73%Possession27%
22Total Shots5
1.80Expected Goals (xG)0.27
8Corners6
6Fouls18
Shots
22Total Shots5
9On Target2
7Off Target1
6Blocked2
11Inside Box2
11Outside Box3
Passing
73%Possession27%
652Total Passes235
579Accurate Passes156
89%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
-0.18Goals Prevented-0.18
Discipline
6Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

UEFA Europa Conference League: AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Shelbourne

AZ Alkmaar beat Shelbourne 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 27, 2025.

Goals: M. de Wit (70'), I. Jensen (86').

AZ Alkmaar controlled possession (73%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.