AZ Alkmaar 2–2 PEC Zwolle: Result & Stats

AZ Alkmaar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

PEC Zwolle

1/20/2024

Eredivisie · Round 18AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

AZ Alkmaar51%

×Draw24%

PEC Zwolle25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ AlkmaarExpected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.15

AZ Alkmaar

1.75

PEC Zwolle

1.15

AZ Alkmaar creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

1.72

creates per match

0.91

1.39

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.72

PEC Zwolle

0.91

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.39

PEC Zwolle

1.79

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.28scores more

PEC Zwolle+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

PEC Zwolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw

75%

AZ Alkmaar or PEC Zwolle

76%

Draw or PEC Zwolle

49%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

28%

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

83%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

52%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

25%

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

68%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

32%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

67%

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.39 · 17 matches

PEC Zwolle away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.79 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.72 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

PEC Zwolle attack 0.91 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more

51%

level

24%

PEC Zwolle scores more

25%

AZ Alkmaar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff