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AZ Alkmaar vs Legia Warszawa — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
10/5/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

AZ Alkmaar50%
×Draw22%
Legia Warszawa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.91
Legia Warszawa
1.38

AZ Alkmaar creates 38% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
2.24
Legia Warszawa
2.16

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
0.60
Legia Warszawa
1.58

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Legia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
72%
AZ Alkmaar or Legia Warszawa
78%
Draw or Legia Warszawa
50%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
28%
Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
85%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
57%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
30%
Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
75%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
40%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
64%
Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.24 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.91

Legia Warszawa attack 2.16 + AZ Alkmaar defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
50%
level
22%
Legia Warszawa scores more
28%

AZ Alkmaar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AZ Alkmaar vs Legia Warszawa

AZ Alkmaar beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.