AZ Alkmaar 5–0 Ilves: Result & Stats

AZ Alkmaar

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Ilves

7/31/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundAFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AZ Alkmaar81%

×Draw14%

Ilves5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ AlkmaarExpected goals in this matchIlves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.46

AZ Alkmaar

2.46

Ilves

0.46

AZ Alkmaar creates 435% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

2.24

creates per match

0.33

0.60

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar

2.24

Ilves

0.33

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar

0.60

Ilves

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Ilves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw

95%

AZ Alkmaar or Ilves

86%

Draw or Ilves

19%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

59%

Ilves wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

91%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

70%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

44%

Ilves 1+ goals

37%

Ilves 2+ goals

8%

Ilves 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

94%

Ilves (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Ilves away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.24 + Ilves defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Ilves attack 0.33 + AZ Alkmaar defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more

81%

level

14%

Ilves scores more

5%

AZ Alkmaar at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff