AZ Alkmaar 1–0 FC Volendam: Result & Stats

AZ Alkmaar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Volendam

1/10/2026

Eredivisie · Round 18AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

AZ Alkmaar67%

×Draw19%

FC Volendam15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ AlkmaarExpected goals in this matchFC Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.95

AZ Alkmaar

2.26

FC Volendam

0.95

AZ Alkmaar creates 138% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 52 away

2.23

creates per match

0.83

1.07

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar

2.23

FC Volendam

0.83

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.07

FC Volendam

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

FC Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw

85%

AZ Alkmaar or FC Volendam

81%

Draw or FC Volendam

33%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

43%

FC Volendam wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

89%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

66%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

39%

FC Volendam 1+ goals

61%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

25%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

82%

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.23 + FC Volendam defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.26

FC Volendam attack 0.83 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more

67%

level

19%

FC Volendam scores more

15%

AZ Alkmaar at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff