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Ayutthaya FC vs Uttaradit — FA Cup 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FCadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Uttaradit
Uttaradit
1/14/2026FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ayutthaya FC81%
×Draw13%
Uttaradit7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
2.84
Uttaradit
0.71

Ayutthaya FC creates 300% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
3.40
Uttaradit
1.43

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
0.00
Uttaradit
2.29

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Uttaradit+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Uttaradit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
93%
Ayutthaya FC or Uttaradit
87%
Draw or Uttaradit
19%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
60%
Uttaradit wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
94%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
77%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
53%
Uttaradit 1+ goals
51%
Uttaradit 2+ goals
16%
Uttaradit 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
92%
Uttaradit (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

Uttaradit away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 3.40 + Uttaradit defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.84

Uttaradit attack 1.43 + Ayutthaya FC defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
81%
level
13%
Uttaradit scores more
7%

Ayutthaya FC at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Ayutthaya FC 3–0 Uttaradit

Ayutthaya FC beat Uttaradit 3-0 in FA Cup on January 14, 2026.