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Ayutthaya FC vs Udon United — FA Cup 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FCadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Udon United
Udon United
10/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ayutthaya FC88%
×Draw9%
Udon United3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
2.95
Udon United
0.38

Ayutthaya FC creates 676% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
3.40
Udon United
0.75

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
0.00
Udon United
2.50

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Udon United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Udon United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
97%
Ayutthaya FC or Udon United
91%
Draw or Udon United
12%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
70%
Udon United wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
95%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
79%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
55%
Udon United 1+ goals
32%
Udon United 2+ goals
6%
Udon United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
97%
Udon United (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

Udon United away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 3.40 + Udon United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.95

Udon United attack 0.75 + Ayutthaya FC defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
88%
level
9%
Udon United scores more
3%

Ayutthaya FC at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Ayutthaya FC 1–0 Udon United

Ayutthaya FC beat Udon United 1-0 in FA Cup on October 29, 2025.