Ayutthaya FC 2–1 Udon Thani: Result & Stats

Ayutthaya FC

FT

2 – 1

Udon Thani

3/6/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 27Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Ayutthaya FC50%

×Draw24%

Udon Thani27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayutthaya FCExpected goals in this matchUdon Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.21

Ayutthaya FC

1.74

Udon Thani

1.21

Ayutthaya FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 82 away

1.54

creates per match

1.15

1.26

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.54

Udon Thani

1.15

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.26

Udon Thani

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Udon Thani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw

73%

Ayutthaya FC or Udon Thani

76%

Draw or Udon Thani

50%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

27%

Udon Thani wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

82%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

52%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

25%

Udon Thani 1+ goals

70%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

34%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

65%

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.74

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more

50%

level

24%

Udon Thani scores more

27%

Ayutthaya FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff