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Ayutthaya FC vs Roi Et — FA Cup 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FCadvanced
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Roi Et
Roi Et
12/20/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ayutthaya FC94%
×Draw5%
Roi Et1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
3.83
Roi Et
0.38

Ayutthaya FC creates 908% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
3.40
Roi Et
0.75

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
0.00
Roi Et
4.25

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Roi Et+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Roi Et →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–015%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (15%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
99%
Ayutthaya FC or Roi Et
95%
Draw or Roi Et
6%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
81%
Roi Et wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
98%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
88%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
71%
Roi Et 1+ goals
32%
Roi Et 2+ goals
6%
Roi Et 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
99%
Roi Et (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

Roi Et away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 3.40 + Roi Et defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.83

Roi Et attack 0.75 + Ayutthaya FC defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
94%
level
5%
Roi Et scores more
1%

Ayutthaya FC at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayutthaya FC vs Roi Et

Ayutthaya FC beat Roi Et 6-0 in FA Cup on December 20, 2025.