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Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
11/26/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ayutthaya FC35%
×Draw25%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
1.36
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.54
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.65

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.26
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.18

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
60%
Ayutthaya FC or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
75%
Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
65%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
16%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
74%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
39%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
16%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
77%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
43%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
47%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.65 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
35%
level
25%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
40%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Ayutthaya Stadium in Ayutthaya.