Ayutthaya FC 1–3 Muangkan United: Result & Stats

Ayutthaya FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Muangkan United

1/15/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 19Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ayutthaya FC42%

×Draw22%

Muangkan United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayutthaya FCExpected goals in this matchMuangkan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.69

Ayutthaya FC

1.83

Muangkan United

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

1.54

creates per match

2.12

1.26

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.54

Muangkan United

2.12

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.26

Muangkan United

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Muangkan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Muangkan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw

64%

Ayutthaya FC or Muangkan United

78%

Draw or Muangkan United

58%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

22%

Muangkan United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

84%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

54%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

28%

Muangkan United 1+ goals

82%

Muangkan United 2+ goals

50%

Muangkan United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

54%

Muangkan United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Muangkan United away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Muangkan United defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.83

Muangkan United attack 2.12 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more

42%

level

22%

Muangkan United scores more

36%

Ayutthaya FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff