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Ayutthaya FC vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
4/3/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 30Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Ayutthaya FC52%
×Draw24%
Kasetsart FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
1.70
Kasetsart FC
1.07

Ayutthaya FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 132 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.54
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.26
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
76%
Ayutthaya FC or Kasetsart FC
76%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
48%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
28%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
82%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
51%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
24%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
66%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
29%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
69%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
52%
level
24%
Kasetsart FC scores more
24%

Ayutthaya FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayutthaya FC vs Kasetsart FC

Ayutthaya FC and Kasetsart FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Ayutthaya Stadium in Ayutthaya.