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Ayutthaya FC vs Chainat — Thai League 2 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chainat
Chainat
2/2/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Ayutthaya FC45%
×Draw25%
Chainat29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
1.52
Chainat
1.17

Ayutthaya FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 105 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.54
Chainat
1.07

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.26
Chainat
1.49

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Chainat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
71%
Ayutthaya FC or Chainat
75%
Draw or Chainat
55%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
23%
Chainat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
78%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
45%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
20%
Chainat 1+ goals
69%
Chainat 2+ goals
33%
Chainat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
61%
Chainat (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chainat attack 1.07 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
45%
level
25%
Chainat scores more
29%

Ayutthaya FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ayutthaya FC 1–2 Chainat

Chainat beat Ayutthaya FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Ayutthaya Stadium in Ayutthaya.