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Ayr Utd vs Queen of the South — League Cup 2018

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
7/12/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3Somerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ayr Utd54%
×Draw22%
Queen of the South24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayr Utd
1.94
Queen of the South
1.23

Ayr Utd creates 58% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ayr Utd
2.69
Queen of the South
1.93

allows per match

Ayr Utd
0.54
Queen of the South
1.20

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw
76%
Ayr Utd or Queen of the South
78%
Draw or Queen of the South
46%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+
31%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals
86%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
58%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
30%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
71%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
35%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
69%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.69 + Queen of the South defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Queen of the South attack 1.93 + Ayr Utd defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ayr Utd scores more
54%
level
22%
Queen of the South scores more
24%

Ayr Utd at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayr Utd vs Queen of the South

Queen of the South beat Ayr Utd 3-0 in League Cup on July 12, 2022.

The match was played at Somerset Park in Ayr.