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Ayr Utd vs Pollok — FA Cup 2019

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pollok
Pollok
11/28/2022FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundSomerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ayr Utd38%
×Draw29%
Pollok33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayr Utd
1.15
Pollok
1.05

Ayr Utd creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ayr Utd
1.30
Pollok
1.40

allows per match

Ayr Utd
0.70
Pollok
1.00

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par
Pollok+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Pollok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw
67%
Ayr Utd or Pollok
71%
Draw or Pollok
62%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+
16%
Pollok wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals
68%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
32%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
11%
Pollok 1+ goals
65%
Pollok 2+ goals
28%
Pollok 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
54%
Pollok (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Pollok away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 1.30 + Pollok defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Pollok attack 1.40 + Ayr Utd defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ayr Utd scores more
38%
level
29%
Pollok scores more
33%

Ayr Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ayr Utd 1 – 0 Pollok

Ayr Utd beat Pollok 1-0 in FA Cup on November 28, 2022.

The match was played at Somerset Park in Ayr.