Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ayr Utd vs Kelty Hearts — FA Cup 2019

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
1/20/2024FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundSomerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ayr Utd66%
×Draw21%
Kelty Hearts13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayr Utd
1.90
Kelty Hearts
0.69

Ayr Utd creates 175% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ayr Utd
1.30
Kelty Hearts
0.67

allows per match

Ayr Utd
0.70
Kelty Hearts
2.50

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par
Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Kelty Hearts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw
87%
Ayr Utd or Kelty Hearts
79%
Draw or Kelty Hearts
34%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+
40%
Kelty Hearts wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals
85%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
56%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
29%
Kelty Hearts 1+ goals
50%
Kelty Hearts 2+ goals
15%
Kelty Hearts 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
84%
Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 1.30 + Kelty Hearts defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kelty Hearts attack 0.67 + Ayr Utd defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ayr Utd scores more
66%
level
21%
Kelty Hearts scores more
13%

Ayr Utd at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayr Utd vs Kelty Hearts

Ayr Utd beat Kelty Hearts 3-0 in FA Cup on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Somerset Park in Ayr.