Ayr Utd 2–0 Edinburgh City: Result & Stats

Ayr Utd

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Edinburgh City

K. Mitchell 77'

O. Stirton 62'

7/18/2026

League Cup · Group StageSomerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ayr Utd84%

×Draw11%

Edinburgh City5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayr UtdExpected goals in this matchEdinburgh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

0.52

Ayr Utd

2.79

Edinburgh City

0.52

Ayr Utd creates 437% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

2.64

creates per match

0.53

0.50

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Ayr Utd

2.64

Edinburgh City

0.53

allows per match

Ayr Utd

0.50

Edinburgh City

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Edinburgh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw

95%

Ayr Utd or Edinburgh City

89%

Draw or Edinburgh City

16%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

64%

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

94%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

76%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

52%

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

41%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

10%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

95%

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.64 + Edinburgh City defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.79

Edinburgh City attack 0.53 + Ayr Utd defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Ayr Utd scores more

84%

level

11%

Edinburgh City scores more

5%

Ayr Utd at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

L. Walker

46'

K. Mitchell← D. Watret

62'

O. Stirton↳ J. Hislop

65'

O. Stirton

66'

G. Allen

67'

C. McKinley← C. McKinley

68'

68'

74'

75'

77'

K. Mitchell↳ B. Summers

82'

C. Pitt← R. Leitch

84'

S. Want← K. Holt

84'

J. Douglas← O. Stirton

86'

K. Mitchell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff