Ayr Utd 1–1 Dundee Utd: Result & Stats | League Cup

Ayr Utd

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dundee Utd

8/14/2021

League Cup · 2nd RoundSomerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ayr Utd54%

×Draw23%

Dundee Utd23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayr UtdExpected goals in this matchDundee Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.13

Ayr Utd

1.84

Dundee Utd

1.13

Ayr Utd creates 63% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

2.69

creates per match

1.71

0.54

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ayr Utd

2.69

Dundee Utd

1.71

allows per match

Ayr Utd

0.54

Dundee Utd

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Dundee Utd →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw

77%

Ayr Utd or Dundee Utd

77%

Draw or Dundee Utd

46%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

30%

Dundee Utd wins by 2+

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

84%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

55%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

28%

Dundee Utd 1+ goals

68%

Dundee Utd 2+ goals

31%

Dundee Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

70%

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.69 + Dundee Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Dundee Utd attack 1.71 + Ayr Utd defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ayr Utd scores more

54%

level

23%

Dundee Utd scores more

23%

Ayr Utd at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff